How is OPS calculated?
The Obbvio Prediction Score (OPS) formula is:
Where:
- Accuracy = C / T (ranges from 0 to 100%)
- C = Number of correct predictions
T = Total number of predictions
- Prediction Difficulty (ranges from 0 to 1)
- O = Average odds of correct predictions
Here are some example values of PD for different Odds values:
PDO |
Odds (O) |
Betting Odds (Decimal Odds) |
|---|---|---|
0.3 |
70% |
3.33 |
0.5 |
50% |
2 |
0.7 |
30% |
1.43 |
- Statistical Significance (ranges from 0 to 100%)
- T = Total number of predictions
- k=100, ensuring that S(T) increases gradually and prevents players with very few predictions from having inflated rankings.
Here are some example values of S(T) for different T values:
T (Total Predictions) |
S(T) (Statistical Significance) |
|---|---|
1 |
1.0% |
5 |
4.9% |
10 |
9.5% |
20 |
18.1% |
30 |
25.9% |
50 |
39.3% |
70 |
50.3% |
100 |
63.2% |
150 |
77.7% |
200 |
86.5% |
300 |
95.0% |
500 |
99.3% |
Here are some example values of Obbvio Prediction Score (OPS):
T (Total Predictions) |
C (Correct Predictions) |
O (Avg Odds) |
Accuracy |
Difficulty (PD) |
Significance (S(T)) |
Score (OPS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 |
6 |
1.8 |
60% |
0.44 |
9.5% |
18.5 |
50 |
30 |
2.2 |
60% |
0.55 |
39.3% |
35.2 |
100 |
60 |
1.9 |
60% |
0.47 |
63.2% |
39.1 |
200 |
120 |
2.5 |
60% |
0.6 |
86.5% |
46.8 |
300 |
180 |
2 |
60% |
0.5 |
95% |
48.9 |
500 |
250 |
1.9 |
50% |
0.47 |
99.3% |
44.2 |
Check WHY OPS is a better ranking method than just counting correct predictions