How is OPS calculated?
The Obbvio Prediction Score (OPS) formula is:
Where:
- Accuracy = C / T (ranges from 0 to 100%)
- C = Number of correct predictions
T = Total number of predictions
Prediction Difficulty PD = 1 - O (ranges from 0 to 100%)
where O = Average odds (probability of winning) of correct predictions
Here are some example values of PD for different Odds values
Difficulty (PD) |
Odds (O) |
|---|---|
70% |
30% |
50% |
50% |
30% |
70% |
- Statistical Significance (ranges from 0 to 100%)
- T = Total number of predictions
- k=100, ensuring that S(T) increases gradually and prevents players with very few predictions from having inflated rankings.
Here are some example values of S(T) for different T values:
T (Total Predictions) |
S(T) (Statistical Significance) |
|---|---|
1 |
1.0% |
5 |
4.9% |
10 |
9.5% |
20 |
18.1% |
30 |
25.9% |
50 |
39.3% |
70 |
50.3% |
100 |
63.2% |
150 |
77.7% |
200 |
86.5% |
300 |
95.0% |
500 |
99.3% |
Here are some example values of Obbvio Prediction Score (OPS):
| Total Predictions (T) | Correct Predictions (C) | Avg Odds (O) | Accuracy (A) | Difficulty (PD) | Significance (S[T]) | Score (OPS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | 75% | 60% | 25% | 18.1% | 25.4 |
| 25 | 14 | 65% | 56% | 35% | 39.3% | 35.1 |
| 50 | 28 | 55% | 56% | 45% | 63.2% | 46.1 |
| 100 | 55 | 50% | 55% | 50% | 86.5% | 53.2 |
| 200 | 100 | 45% | 50% | 55% | 98.2% | 57.4 |
| 500 | 240 | 40% | 48% | 60% | 99.3% | 60.3 |
| 1000 | 470 | 35% | 47% | 65% | 100% | 63.2 |
Check WHY OPS is a better ranking method than just counting correct predictions